Real Estate Matters

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) periodically surveys its members to get information that is not readily available from MLSs or other "hard" data sources. NAR just released a recent market assessment survey of data from over 2,000 Realtors and there are surprising findings that may contradict some of what we see from the media.

A most interesting finding came from a question posed in the survey asking “In thinking of your most recent potential buyer in 2008, did the client postpone their home buying decision?”

• 50 percent said no, and said the buyer bought in the end
• 23 percent said the potential buyer did not buy, preferring to wait for prices to fall further.
• 6 percent said the potential buyer did not buy because of mortgage difficulties
• 4 percent said the potential buyer could not locate the ‘perfect’ home
• 7 percent said the potential buyer needed to sell the current home
• 9 percent said the potential buyer changed their mind due to various personal reasons.

The striking finding is the second bullet point. There are many potential buyers (23 percent) who have the financial capacity and mortgage qualifications, yet are refusing to jump into the market because of further price decline fears. These hesitant buyers far outnumber the people who are unable to secure a mortgage.

The implication here is that once there are signs of market stabilization, we may see a rush of buyers returning to the market and the recovery could be robust rather than slow. I always like to look at the potential for increased sales and this indeed is encouraging. It also implies that the homebuyer tax-credit being discussed in Congress right now as part of the housing stimulus bill could make a big impact in drawing buyers to act.

Another encouraging finding is that most respondents indicated little problem with their clients getting a mortgage. Specifically, 68 percents said either none or less than one fifth of clients were not able to get a mortgage. Only 8 percent indicated that half or more of their clients were not able to get a mortgage.

Cheers,

Bill

There is little doubt that current economic trends are pointing to a weaker U.S economy with gas prices now over 4 dollars a gallon, escalating energy costs and the adjusting real estate market nationally. Entire industries are reeling – airlines and automakers most prominent among them – and gas prices have emerged as an important issue in the presidential campaign. But there now opportunities in the Greater Sarasota area to re- think the future of how we live as we recover locally from the housing slump.

Despite more negative data about the housing market nationally, prospects for a recovery seem stronger in Southwest Florida. Sales in the Sarasota area climbed 24 percent in May continuing a trend for the past several months. This type of local trend was pointed out recently at the annual meeting of the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate (AFIRE) in Amsterdam, Holland. The association brought together 100 top executives from the US and Europe to discuss, among other topics, challenges of the US residential market. The consensus was that there is no single residential market, with every area having its own unique characteristics. “The housing market is a market of markets.” When we analyze real estate trends we need to pay close attention to our local market.

But as the real estate market improves locally, certain lifestyle and planning adjustments will have to be considered. One such adjustment will be improving public transportation in our area. In Sarasota the car is king, used almost exclusively for transportation, from commuting to the office to a trip to the grocery store for milk. Lifestyle habits will change as we continue to watch gas prices increase. Where we live in relation to everything that we do and everywhere we go will become increasingly more important.

For a taste of our necessary future, we can also take a look at the streets of Amsterdam Holland. Of course cars function there, minimally, but bikes account for 37 percent of transport and public transportation comes in second at 22 percent of trips, according to a recent Washington Post article. What I found interesting is that Amsterdam’s long range goals are quite similar to Sarasota’s. For decades it’s been to nurture the “compact city”, slowing a middle-class exodus and preserving the open landscape by dense development, recycling old industrial areas and intermingling uses. It’s genius, so rarely discussed in America, is smart land sue and curbing the auto use that so easily overwhelms modern world cities. Amsterdam encouraged recent housing developers on its northern flank to finance a five mile stretch of new “tramline” to open ahead of the new housing so that residents wouldn’t become accustomed to car commuting.

We here in Sarasota should look at Amsterdam’s combination of bicycle lanes on most streets, effective combination of bus, rail and tram service as possible public transportation systems here. According to the Washington Post, a project was begun by resourceful young professionals in Amsterdam who are trying to adapt new GPS navigation systems to data feeds that give commuters transit options in real time – bus, tram and rail runs, routes and preferred connections by the minute, customized to the user’s location on mobile phone display.

We have a long way do go from our dependency on the automobile, but the time is right now to start looking at different opportunities before us as our housing needs will change.

By the way, if you haven’t looked at my home page in awhile, please do so, as I’ve added some useful links to Sarasota area information centers and will continue to add more, so let me know what information you would like to see on the site.

Cheers,

Bill