According to a recent statement by the the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR), a modest gain in the level of home sales is possible over the next couple of months, and an improvement is forecast for the second half of this year as more buyers are able to access affordable mortgages, according to the latest forecast. FAR stated that the Pending Home Sale Index rose 6.3 percent to 88.2 from a reading of 83.0 in March, which is the highest index figure since last October. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), said that pending sales contracts have picked up notably in areas undergoing significant price drops. "Bargain hunters have entered the market en masse, especially in areas that have experienced double-digit price declines, but it's unclear if they are investors or owner-occupants," he said. "Sharp price reductions are leading to a quicker discovery of price equilibrium points. The West is already seeing year-over-year gains in pending contracts."
Financing is still attractive for qualified buyers. Jumbo loans are a big bargain. A new law temporarily allows Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to buy mortgages as big as $729,750, which is keeping the jumbo rates down, however the deal disappears at the end of this year. Interest rates remain low but according to Celia Chen of Moody's Economy.com predicts rates will hit 7 percent in mid 2009, so the time is now to drive a hard bargain for a home you really love.
Cheers,
Bill
According to a recent National Association of Realtors (NAR) buyers survey, second home sales in the U.S. accounted for 33% of transactions in 2007 inspite of a decline in the total vacation and investment homes sales. During this same time, primary residence sales declined 10 percent to 4.34 million in 2007 from 4.82 million in 2006. NAR Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun cited the disappearance of speculators from the market as the reason for the decline, leaving the market serious buyers. The disruption in the mortgage market and tightening of credit during the second half of 2007 also impacted this market sector, but lifestyle factors and strong demographics (including a peak of population in their prime years for buying recreational property), point to a positive outlook for the vacation home market, according to NAR.
While U.S. buyers may be taking a wait and see attitude, foreign buyers are taking advantage of the weak U.S. dollar and are propping up second-home sales. Conversely, Inman News reports that U.S. buyers are looking abroad for their second home investment in such areas as Costa Rica, Belize, Mexico and Northeastern Brazil, taking advantage of newer resort markets where prices are still relatively low and the U.S. dollar can buy more than here at home.
However, the housing market slowdown is mutating into a global phenomenon with real estate prices taking a hit worldwide, according to a recent article in The New York Times. Housing markets that soared over the last decade are falling back to earth, according the the article, citing specific problems in the UK, Spain and Ireland. Property analysts predict that some countries will face a tougher adjustment than in the U.S., including the possibility of a market collapse. In emerging and developing economies the impact is less pronounced, but capital inflows have moderated. Market stresses have hurt currency values, notably the sharp decline in the value of the U.S. dollar since mid 2007.
Last week, Judy Schomaker, president of Suncoast International Realty and I returned from attending the SIMA08 Madrid International Real Estate Exhibition in Madrid with much excitement and optimism from the experience for international real estate investment in our area. SIMA Madrid is the largest real estate exhibition in the world with over 800 exhibitors of which over 200 are international exhibitors, 160,000+ visitors covering 6 pavilions represented by over 60 countries. The exhibition is comprised of an international tourism real estate fair pavilion; an international pavilion for worldwide investment markets; promotion, management and planning of cities pavilion and technology design and equipment for sustainable construction pavilion.
The international worldwide investment pavilion is not only made up of elaborate exhibitions but an International Business Center (IBC) is provided as a compliment of the international program for the exchange of information and business opportunity between professional visitors at SIMA. The IBC meeting space is designed to enable the exhibitors and accredited real estate professionals in attendance to make contact with one another, business to business encounters and presentations focusing on the exchange of international business opportunities. It was within the IBC area that the Sarasota Association of Realtors was provided presentation booth space for the entire event. This enabled us to not only showcase the wonderful lifestyle of Sarasota but to present very desirable investment opportunities available to the international investor. Among the countries that we received encouraging interest from were investors from Spain, Germany, Finland, Chile, France, Brazil and Eastern Europe to name just a few.
In addition to the IBC, SIMA also provided a rather intense International Professional Program (IPP) in an adjacent convention center where, each day, various countries, including USA presented current real estate market conditions in their countries. Of particular mention was the program entitled "Trends in the Global 2nd Homes Market" with presentations by John Tuccillo, former chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR) along with presentations from Latin America and demand for second homes in European capitals. Judy Schomaker, NAR's President's Liaison to Spain also was the chairperson for a day long program entitled "America From North To South" enabling officials from Canada to Chile to present and discuss real estate conditions in their countries.
There were many other opportunities at the exhibition to promote Sarasota including several social networking events throughout the week and evening events, and the Sarasota/Manatee area was very well represented. It was a very worthwhile experience.
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